CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $162.00-164.00; on 101 boxed loads cut outs mixed @ up. $.05 @ $263.27(c), dn.$1.28 @ $256.75 (s) on light/moderate demand; Carcass Equivalent: $243.63 dn. $.12.
COMMENTS: Seems a key test of contract should be upon us if the bullish momentum is to stay in place. The discount in futures while supportive, is narrowing and loses some of its bull-argument on just that. Hence a close/move over $160.25 a likely bear defense near term. Open interest rose 1300 even as August drops 1300 amid light volume (lack of confidence?). No opinion changes.
Interior cash hogs lower @ dn.$1.63-3.32(W), N/E (E): rough avg. $1N/A. Pork cut outs fell $.35 @ $126.47. Lean index 08/04 @ $124.82 dn. $.79.
COMMENTS: New swing lows yesterday and another recovery overnight in a volatile trade amid light volume; I/M wts. fell .1lb to 283.6 on wk. but a whopping 12lbs. over year ago; more talk of Russia perhaps to suspend U.S. poultry imports (negative and I covered it before if it occurs; open interest little changed in total and individually amid light volume; after yesterday I looked vindicated on my wide $100-98.00 main support near term. Might still be a stretch, we’ll see. Pork demand still limp and live hog prices still falling, in some cases hard. Still need to be a sell strong rally mode with overall likely bear defense a move over $104.57 (due to the volatility I need to make chart areas ‘meaningful’ when I can; obviously one can use their own perimeters).
Of note: some reader remarked I left out the ‘1’ in ’21’ as per years in soybean comments as to yields…..the editor regrets the error.