Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 8/4/14
MORNING MEATS 8/4/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $163.00-164.00; on 78 boxed loads cut outs lower @ dn. $.53 @ $262.13(c), dn.$2.48 @ $258.12 (s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $246.00 up. $.88.
COMMENTS: Couple lower in the cash cattle market last week and its premium to the August futures still wide. Not unexpected. The question now is: are the cash and futures tops in? Yes, we can point to some obvious reasons for one to be in but needs to be confirmed: this pattern for now very similar to the July 9th/10th correction. Is beef topped? Since I thought it was topped out awhile back I’ll not PRESUME it for now anyway. Open interest fell 10,650 led by August off 12,700 (surprisingly large) amid good volume; C-O-T report: neutral lean.

HOGS:
Interior cash hogs lower @ dn.$.96(W), dn. $1.40 (E): rough avg. $120.00. Pork cut outs fell $1.10 @ $126.78. Lean index 07/31 @ $125.82 dn. $1.21.
COMMENTS: More talk about PEDv in my meandering readings but obviously has been a case of ‘crying wolf’ for extreme bulls. Russia banning U.S. poultry imports in the news again, but at least it ain’t bourbon; open interest fell 2,000 led by Q/V almost evenly, volume light side. Well, we now have August lean hogs in line with the average interior prices and back months too early to tell if most of the PEDv has been extracted. Charts are miserable obviously, October posted a ‘double low’ at $102.37 but not likely durable. Next major level of broad support $100.00-98.00. Still treating both cattle and hogs as trading affairs, which has been proper for protecting spec equity in general.

Finally: USDA on a manure-quality level as per methane in livestock droppings by introducing a “Biogas” system. I had biogas issue for years as a beer drinker.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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