Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 8/20/14
MORNING MEATS 8/20/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $153.00-157.00 and $244.00; on 164 boxed loads cut outs lower @ dn. $2.19 @ $252.91(c), dn.$2.66 @ $243.91 (s) on moderate/good demand; Carcass Equivalent: $232.49 dn. $1.13.

COMMENTS: Starting to look like the packer’s are having a ‘fire sale’ of sorts on beef as evidenced above; how September consumer beef demand plays out will be the key question and the outlook to me not all that good; some traders look at the upside breakout of the September U.S. $ as a negative exports (just for that a big ‘if’ to me); open interest little changed in total and individually amid moderate volume; October seems poised to test swing lows at $144.92; still need a close over $150.00 to turn near term neutral; worth noting: September Feeder Cattle closed under its major m/a’s ($215.50-214.69) on a downside breakout.

HOGS:
Interior cash hogs lower @ dn. $2.30 (W), N/E (E): rough avg. $N/A. Pork cut outs fell $1.14 @ $108.75. Lean index 08/15 @ $113.04 dn. $1.66.

COMMENTS: I/M and western interior both posted sub-$100.00 price levels, first time in quite awhile. As on the way up, some contrary talk about when pork demand would top out is now the opposite: when will bottom out? In both instances it is arbitrary considering the what the market has been doing for several months. “Value” has been hard to determine. That’s why the charts for months. Guess that’s another way of saying “I don’t know”. I/M wts. dropped .7lbs on the week, still up 11.5lbs. on year; open interest (sans August to 0) was little changed amid light volume; how low is low displaces how high is high; charts look terrible still, swing lows in jeopardy at $93.50; close over $98.00 to turn neutral here.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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