Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 8/15/13

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $121.00-$123.00; on 165 boxed loads cut outs: choice up. $2.03 at $192.35 select up. $1.40 at $184.76 on strong demand. Carcass Equivalent: $179.55 up. $1.00.

COMMENTS: Certainly was a big day for the beef price and beef movement as retailers seemingly came together at once for end month/holiday/back-to-school/BBQ’ing weather. Seems like it anyway. One could expect packers can be generous and pay up a couple bucks since beef movement suggested no back up and coolers should be lighter to end the week. Weekly beef export sales modest at 12,700t led by Japan at 4,600t, shipments though marketing year high up 11%; open interest little changed in total or individually, volume moderate. The October premium makes it tough to buy the rallies without exiting quickly. Let’s put a sight-line at $129-130.00 as upside objective for now. Beware the air.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs yesterday lower at dn. $.50/$1.51 rough avg. $97.35; cut outs dn. $.54 @ $102.67; lean index as of 08/13 @ $102.49 up. $.26.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs seen weaker as packers done with most purchases and cut outs being limp. Weekly pork export sales modest at 8,500t led by Japan and Ukraine, though shipments also a marketing year high and up 59%; open interest a battle ground: up 8,368? led by V/Z/G and I suspect commercial hedging vs. fund buying hit a peak. As such, a strong seasonal down might be in the making and will back off the chart upside breakout as suspicious.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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