CATTLE: Cash cattle so far: $154.00-159.00 and $244-245.00; on 193 boxed loads cut outs lower @ dn. $1.27 @ $256.88(c), dn.$3.58 @ $249.55 (s) on moderate/good demand; Carcass Equivalent: $237.97 dn. $1.12.
COMMENTS: Russia’s chicken is being used as the excuse by some bulls for all of cattle woes. Yes it’s a part of it but hardly the full story. Beef topped out with or without chicken for several reasons. Nonetheless, prices still shaking out their excesses. When it ends, nobody knows. Only constructive thing is that lower prices are bolstering beef movement but needs to be consistently high; weekly beef export sales fell 21% to 9,400t and no ‘late sales’ nor ‘prior weeks’ sales noted like the pork. Open interest little hanged in total even as Q/V falls 3700 amid good volume. New swing low of $144.92 October; market still in a sell-rally bent, likely bear defense remains a move/close over $150.00, will lower if necessary.
HOGS: ****AUGUST EXPIRES TODAY…………
Interior cash hogs lower @ dn. $3.03 (W), N/E (E): rough avg. $N/A. Pork cut outs fell $2.45 @ $113.85. Lean index 08/12 @ $117.89 dn. $.98.
COMMENTS: Well, the sharply lower pork prices did prompt a large pork movement yesterday. Not likely enough to floor-support futures but worth mentioning; Russia’s poultry ban now being used for the pork woes as chicken will be a ‘substitute’. Old news to us. Weekly pork export sales useless again as it contains late sales and prior week sales. Again. Will note Russia bought 7,400t ‘late’ (ahead of their embargo?); I/M hogs priced at roughly $107.50…a might fall from grace, eh?; open interest rose 1,000 amid moderate volume; new swing lows at $95.10, under that support band near term $94.-93.00; sell rally bent remains, likely defense a move/close over $101.43 and will look to lower it.