CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $119.00 south, $120-121.00 north; on 135 boxed loads cut outs: choice dn. $.82 at $190.70, select up. $.27 at $183.94 on light/moderate demand. Carcass Equivalent: $176.86 dn. $1.77.
COMMENTS: Doing the right things: cash cattle last week held relatively well; open interest still net gains; beef in an orderly decline and no fire sales. Open interest rose 3,755 even as August falls 4440 amid moderate volume. Perhaps there will be momentum to take prices to the high end of my target at $123-124.00.
But we are a bit overbought and at premium to the cash. On the flip side I remain moderately bullish as before and hence no sell rec’s. Showlists leaned friendly.
Interior cash hogs yesterday lower at dn. $1.06/$2.50 rough avg. $96.50; cut outs dn. $.55 @ $100.31; lean index as of 07/11 @ $102.99 dn. $.10.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs once more steady-ish though will note a cut out resurrection from early to the late wire of about $2.00/hwt. Rascally packers. Hot and humid weather seem to be affecting wts. but pork demand overall has quieted down. As such, August in a consolidation mode off their low-end range on the charts. I’m a bit surprised August not making a better run up at discount.
Open interest little changed in total, moderate rolling noted out of Aug. into Oct., volume moderate. Interior average price slowly and unevenly grinding lower, August crawling higher, tightening the basis. Tilt remains negative.