MORNING MEATS 7/01/13
CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $120.-121.50, Neb dressed $194.00; on 83 boxed loads cut outs: choice up. $.12 at $197.50, select dn. $.47 at $187.15 on light demand. Carcass Equivalent: $182.27 dn. $.08.
COMMENTS: Well, the Pig Crop no apparent threat to the cattle pit; light beef movement purely holiday-related; light rains seen on 4th of July, should not be a washout; June’s expiration was worrisome at limit down, took some muscle out of the market but perhaps a climax of sorts; C-O-T report neutral (almost all net liquidation!); open interest fell another 2,219 led by August off 6758 amid moderate volume, might indicate this rally needs a setback; should see good support $121-120.00, close under $120.00 the likely defense area.
Interior cash hogs yesterday lower at dn. $.40/$1.63 rough avg. $98.20; cut outs dn. $.67 @ $109.69; lean index as of 06/27 @ $103.39 dn. $.03.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs should be weaker with the holiday kills, and will await next week’s numbers on holiday/weekend pork clearance; Pig Crop could be stretched to a hair bullish but hey…… On the charts, Friday August damn-near had a ‘key reversal’ but what bothers me a bit was the open interest in the August down so hard (end of quarter profit taking?), nonetheless still a valid reason to sell recovery rallies and defend over the highs. Pen interest fell 3,291 led by August off 6,955 amid good volume; C-O-T report: slightly negative.