Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 6/25/14
MORNING MEATS 6/25/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $148.-150.00 and $235.-238.00; on 84 boxed loads cut outs higher @ up. $.89 @ $243.66(c), up. $1.99 @ $238.74 (s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $225.60 up. $.50.
COMMENTS: What can one say as prices roar higher and post new record highs? I am always on alert for a hint at a top but the last one’s ‘key reversal’ ended up a ‘key refusal’ and was negated. How high the moon? Coin toss. But I’ll still suggest the seasonal might have been delayed and not denied. The retailers are a big part of it keeping prices ‘reasonably high'; all we can do is set up near term warning flag levels, this time a close a close under $148.00. By the way, Rabobank apparently has an index of U.S. BBQ px’s. and says its 10-person BBQ will cost $66.82 vs. $51.90 10 yrs. ago and $55.62 in 2007….I am trying to find year ago from them but point was possibly sticker shock.

HOGS:
Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $2.54 (W), N/C (E): rough avg. $121.50. Pork cut outs rose $2.41 @ $130.50. Lean index 06/23 @ $121.68 up. $1.29.
COMMENTS: August hogs are still ‘reluctant’ to extend its premium to the lean index with no new highs. Could it be 1)the Pig Crop and/or 2) beef cannot last much longer? I/M wts. fell 2lbs. to 285 but still up 11lbs. on year.
Open interest rose 1800 spread among several months (no bull push) amid moderate volume. PEDV? Pig Crop wts. might tell us. Trading affair bias with cattle higher but might be better to traded day to day.
Avg. Est.: All 97%; Breed 101.5%; Market 96.5%.

 

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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