MORNING MEATS 6/20/13
CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $120.00 south, $121.00 north, Neb dressed $195-196.00; on 178 boxed loads cut outs: choice dn. $1.26 at $198.98, select up. $.30 at $184.69 on moderate/good movement. Carcass Equivalent: $183.61 dn. $.63.
COMMENTS: Not surprising packer bids came in at $116.00 on a typical low-ball but there’s talk it will be hit. If so futures are acting superiorly well. Let’s be a bit careful. Worth noting that August cattle posted an 11-day high in its range and seems a ‘gift’ to sell. Or a Trojan horse. The CME usually does not give gifts.
Weekly beef export sales 9,000t, vs. 13,100t wk. ago, led by HK at 4,100t; shipments a new marketing year high of 15,800t up 6% on week.
Interior cash hogs yesterday mixed at dn. $.24/up 1.31 rough avg. $100.30; cut outs up. $.92 @ $106.67; lean index as of 06/18 @ $103.87 up $.55.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs look underpinned again by another jump in cut outs; open interest fell 3,300 led by June/July off 4500, volume was very strong again. My top idea was taken out yesterday on new swing highs and I’ll back off new shorts officially for a bit; yesterday’s big range $101.32-99.07 saw the close just under 50% of the range, might mean little bearish but worth mentioning. The pork trade action of late almost seems to HAVE to be supported by pork exports…I have indications retail demand stalled last week though maybe a product squeeze occurring? Or going the freezer. Report says Canadian pig exports to the U.S might drop due to the COOL amendment by the USDA that says no ‘comingling’, more when available. Pork export sales weekly 8,300t vs. 12,100t wk. (no China).