CATTLE: Cash cattle so far: Neb. $148.00 dn.$1-2 and $234.00 dn. $2-4.00; on 106 boxed loads cut outs higher @ up. $2.74 @ $238.54(c), up. $2.78 @ $232.05 (s) on good demand; Carcass Equivalent: $223.70 up. $1.34.
COMMENTS: What key reversals? The market seems to be trying to negate its major chart reversals, especially feeders, with sharply higher prices this morning. However, the break was good enough there is still a lot of territory to cover to negate it. At worst, looks like a defined short sale. The psychology though of beef is at work as well: why another day of sharply higher? Retailers that short-bought for 4th of July? The other side of that is a collapse in beef prices when it runs its course and maybe the highs are in for the summer. Weekly beef export ales rose sharply from bottom feeding levels to 16,100t led by H-K (not Mch.-May but Hong Kong) and Japan; I wonder if the sharp hog rally that seems to ignore a possible PEDv vaccine also at play…beef has a vested interest in it does it not? Open interest little changed in total, some rolling noted, amid moderate volume. Bullish avg. trade estimates for the cattle-on-feed report noted.
Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $1.12 (W), up. $1.33 (E): rough avg. $117.50. Pork cut outs rose $1.68 @ $124.87. Lean index 06/16 @ $116.13 up. $.83.
COMMENTS: What PEDv vaccine? Seems the buyers wish to take out the possible effects of a vaccine for PEDv by either down playing it or pushing it way down the road. I’m still more a believer numbers will not be down as hard as some believe. Hence I cannot buy August at a such a premium due to that and other reasons. However, not being suicidal the charts tell me no definitive signal for a short sale. Pretty wishy-washy eh? It’s been tough enough just treating as a trading affair. Open interest fell 9,011 led by June/July off combined 9700 (that also says to me part of this sharp rally simply because there was a void of selling overhead…..a big chunk done yesterday), volume moderate to good. Weekly pork export sales fell 24% to 6,500t led by Mexico.