MORNING MEATS 5/09/13
CATTLE: Cash cattle so far $126.00. Neb. dressed $204.00; On 139 boxed loads cut outs: choice up. $3.48 at $204.67, select up. $.37 at $190.63 on moderate demand. Carcass Equivalent: $191.30 up. $1.62.
COMMENTS: In looking at the new record high in the choice beef, it reminded me of a biblical saying: gather ye rosebuds while ye may. Packers of course seem to be squeezing the retailer, well aware that when the beef tops out, it will likely be a rout. Cash cattle weakness then preceding the beef, another indication a beef top is near. If cash cattle and futures were closer it would be an easier trade; as it is do we ‘buy the rumor/sell the fact’ near term? Well, not for the long hall but possibly for the short haul; I’ll keep to yesterday’s recommendation in the June.
Open interest fell 2,430 led by June off 5861 amid strong volume.
Weekly beef export sales:…see grain comments.
Interior cash hogs yesterday higher at up $.65/$1.44, rough avg. $89.50; cut outs up. $.52 @ $87.08; lean index as of 05/07 at $8.78 up. $.98.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs firm again? With I/M approaching $92.00, one might think June hogs are fairly tepid…where’s all the bull-buying? Yesterday’s action seems a ‘mini-battle’ considering volume was decent and open interest DID finally perk up by 3,812 (June off 1778 with July up 3943, rest up lightly). June could use a close over $93.00 to give the bulls some chart hopes. I’ll not bite: still looks toppy and still a trading affair.
Weekly pork export sales:… see grain comments.