Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 3/3/14
MORNING MEATS 3/3/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $150.-152.00, and $240.00 Neb.; on 77 boxed loads cut outs higher at up. $3.92 @ $225390(c)/up. $4.12 @ $223.12(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $214.52 up. $2.04.

COMMENTS: I wonder if the Russian/Ukraine deal could hurt beef exports; WTO says will decide Canada’s (with Mexico) COOL decision by June (depending on which way it goes could start a trade war); deliveries 9; op4en interest little changed in total, of note April off 1584, amid moderate volume; C-O-T report: leaned friendly. Prices in the live market back into rarified air and no we see just how high beef prices have to go to pay for it. As we talked about, futures have done a poor job in cattle futures forecasting the “future” and April cattle might be doing so now. As a general likely defense area, a move/close under $143.80 seems reasonable.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $2.55(w)/up. $2.65 (e) with rough avg. $99.50; pork cut outs up. $2.76 @ $104.14, led by bells, hams & loins. Lean index as of 02/27 @ $95.92 up. $1.21.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs should be higher. I wonder if the March 10th Russian lifting of the U.S. pork imports will be meaningful anymore considering the Ukraine “crisis”. But hogs always have the threat of a devastating PEDv reduction in supplies coming. In fact, one report said packers were basically panicking in here acquiring hogs IN FRONT of such a development. Cold storage report for Feb. likely very interesting. Open interest rose 2,256 led by June up 1,196 amid heavy volume; C-O-T report: leaned strongly bearish (but keep corn in mind!); April hogs on a rocket and I cannot define ‘reasonable’ defense areas. Keep in mind that reality might be more interesting than conjecture.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.