CATTLE: Cash cattle this week: $150.-152.00 south, $152.-154.00 Neb. and $245.00 dressed; on 62 boxed loads cut outs mixed @ up. $.13 @ $241.25(c)/dn. $1.48 @ $234.45(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $224.63 up. $.18.
COMMENTS: How about that April contract, a gift of the Magi as it incredibly once again held the $143.00 area yesterday and profited the true believers. Of course it helped that it did a questionable job of anticipating the higher cash cattle this week but who argues with success? AND it’s still discount. Now we see if the waters part at the ‘double high’ at $146.82-146.92. Chart trading rules.
Interior cash hogs mixed @ dn. $1.63 to up. $.88 (e), rough avg. $125.15: Pork cut outs up. $.06 @ $130.47. Lean index as of 03/24 @ $125.04 up. $2.47.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs tempering? The packer’s are surely packing their margins as I look at the primal cuts but has the break already discounted it any slight price moderation? Pig Crop will rule and I suspect the pre-report nerves the trigger for the apparent profit taking. But is the over over? We’ll wait to see if the Pig Crop gives us a clue fundamentally but for now a “short term top” in place (obviously). The average estimates on the surface bullish with All at 94.5%; Breed 9.5%; Market 96% with a focus on the farrowing intentions and PPL. A report crossed my desk that said a major fund position “pushed” into hog futures (for several of the last new highs?). Open interest fell 1200 led by April off 2755 so no major long liquidation, just the weak ones for now involved in the break, volume was decent (big traders active during the day).