CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $150.00 south, $152.-152.50 Neb. and $241-242.00; on 86 boxed loads cut outs higher @ up. $.96 @ $241.12(c)/up. $2.27 @ $235.93(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $224.45 up. $.70.
COMMENTS: Not surprisingly the C-O-F report meant little except briefly early; showlist estimates little changed except Texas up 4,000hd.; seasonal weakness close by the calendar; 60 degrees here seen Sunday, might be a test of BBQ’ing; if one was in a sealed room and only had April cattle charts one would not think cash cattle was back at record highs perhaps; open interest rose 1,200 even as April falls 3,000 amid moderate volume; we’ll see if the low $143.00 area or so remains sacrosanct support; discount has been tough to sell but now the discount looks a bit tough to buy considering yesterday’s failed rally. What’s April telling us?
Interior cash hogs weaker @ dn. $.18(w, avg. $127.80),to Not/Est. (E): Pork cut outs dn. $.19 @ $130.41. Lean index as of 03/21 @ $122.57 up. $2.70.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs higher? Curiously April looks to be forming a ’rounded top’ and the June closed under its chart gap. As Clint Eastwood would say….”feeling lucky, punk?” Sell it, make my day. Seriously folks, we have the first chink in the bull armor technically (just a chink!) but considering the widening discount to the live (especially I/M, but in line with current lean) it gets riskier to sell. Hence except for buying puts as mentioned before, I’ll save my short-spec money awhile longer. Keep in mind a Pig Crop coming up.