Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 3/14/14
MORNING MEATS 3/14/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $147.-150.00, and $237-240..00 dressed Neb.; on 87 boxed loads cut outs mixed, dn. $.21 @ $241.30(c)/up. $.11 @ $236.87(s) on moderate/light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $223.53 dn. $.32.

COMMENTS: Few head reported out of Texas and Kansas at $148.00 a positive for the April contract this morning due to the discount. And of course the dearth of hogs expected coming to a theater near you. Retail beef shows a modest lowering of prices but this, to me, merely coming off bookings done when beef was on its last big break. Open interest little changed in total even as April drops 9,600 (June up 8590) amid strong volume. Bulls have it easy: closes under $143.00 April if buying those ‘gift’ breaks (must be a new CME policy! Miss it and we’ll bring prices back for you to buy, as many times as it takes apparently…hope it’s not a Trojan horse).

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $1.16(w),up. $2.39 (e) with rough avg. $111.50; pork cut outs up. $1.12 @ $120.62, led by mixed primal cuts. Lean index as of 03/12 @ $109.16 up. $1.59.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs higher? For PEDv— Empty stalls, farmers ravaged etc.

Reports are dramatic that we’ll see plunging supplies and so severe that the U.S. Senate looks to get disaster declarations for small hog producers. Gee, will expected bulging cold storage stocks even be enough? Open interest rose 1345 even as April falls 5,145 (summer months higher) amid very strong volume. The top will be in the rear view mirror and with prices in very uncharted territory, every upside projection is arbitrary. Pork demand may eventually collapse but retailers seemingly still absorbing a lot of the current costs.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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