Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 3/11/14
MORNING MEATS 3/11/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $147.-150.00, and $237-240..00 dressed Neb.; on 75 boxed loads cut outs mixed at up. $2.88 @ $238.90(c)/up. $3.12 @ $235.89(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $222.65 up. $1.48.

COMMENTS: USDA said pork/poultry and beef production to be lower; choice beef nears its magic $240.00 area amid continuing light movement…not sure if history will repeat itself with pork soaring; tough to sell April at its discount to the live as evident and IF pork falls 12-15% this summer (see hogs), will June cattle be terribly underpriced? I’ll stick to the charts for now.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $1.67(e)/up. $1.15 (w) with rough avg. $106.25; pork cut outs up. $2.42 @ $113.55, led by bells ad loins. Lean index as of 03/07 @ $104.73 up. $1.19.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs higher? Why do I feign surprise when morning USDA report says I/M opens down $3.15 and then ends up $1.15? The possible reason for the renewed ‘panic’ buying yesterday was a report that hog supplies could fall 12-15% this summer apparently over the PEDv problem. USDA report merely said pork production will fall .3% or 60mln.lbs. and even then offset by exports down 65mln.lbs. So, any Russian concerns meant little in front of the disease potential. That leaves with trying to figure out how high prices can go IF THE DISEASE is that severe? One article suggested cattle and hog prices will come together. WOW. Better fill up the freezers gentlemen. Open interest suggests squeeze as April off 5,170 (M/V up 3200) amid good volume. No idea where this market is going on the upside.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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