CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $144.-145.00, and $230.-231.00 Neb.; on 111 boxed loads cut outs lower at dn. $.57 @ $213.75(c)/dn. $.48 @ $210.88(s) on moderate demand; Carcass Equivalent: $204.61 dn. $.28.
COMMENTS: Here’s a bull-concern: IF the cattle on feed suggests more cattle than expected will come to market, then with retail prices at record highs there could likely be a significant fall from grace in cash cattle markets….in other words a little will go a long way SUPPLY-WISE. If that were to happen of course though the back-month futures might be telling us this. 2nd, I would have expected the cold storage beef stocks to lower than they were considering the 5% decline in marketing’s. Open interest fell 1,000 led by Feb./April, off 3500, rest of the months up modestly, volume moderate; C-O-T REPORT: a bit friendly. Trading affair again for awhile.
Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $1.34(w)/up. $.42 (e) with rough avg. $91.00); pork cut outs up. $.17 @ $97.09, strongly mixed trade. Lean index as of 02/20 @ $90.31 up. $1.03.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs called up to $1.00 higher on weather. The cold storage report was negative with pork supplies up 13% and well above average trade estimates. BUT, it was all explained away as it was led by bellies (huge) and packer’s simply putting them away for a rainy (PEDv) day. Of course. Pork movement fell sharply Friday but will see if a trend; chicken stocks looked neutral to me in the end (but will be enough to be competitive); open interest little changed in total and individually amid decent volume; C-O-T report: leaned bearish. New contract highs as April seem intent on breeching the $100.00 area and so far, I am not arguing with it. But stay tuned if we see a reversal that is usable. Upside? arbitrary of course.