CATTLE: Cash cattle last week: $140.00/141.00,and $225.00 Neb.; on 127boxed loads cut outs lower at dn. $2.02 @ $209.14(c)/dn. $.85 @ $208.16(s) on moderate demand; Carcass Equivalent: $201.13 dn. $1.26.
COMMENTS: I cannot recall a time that the USDA posted that the last “established” market in Tx. an Ks. was two weeks ago ($144-145.00). Better or folly supply-side management? Tricky, eh? For now, if selling a likely near term bear defense April a close/move over $142.00. Mini-battle: open interest rose 3,600 even as Feb. falls 2,100 amid good volume.
Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $.02(e)/$.13 (w) with rough avg. (w) $82.00; pork cut outs up. $.13 @ $91.41, quiet trade. Lean index as of 02/10 @ $84.77 up. $.23.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs steady early on weather? OK, let’s give the market the benefit of the doubt as cash hogs have risen several dollars of late and backgrounded by weather and wts.: I/M 281 dn. 1.6lbs. on week and ‘only’ up 4.3lbs. on yr. A goodly amount of tonnage the last two weeks. But is it temporary? Since I do not see the pork as a driver by itself, the test will be warmer weather that starts next week (backup) and then a couple weeks after (wts.). This may also test the PEDv theory. Near term, if probing the short side a likely bear defense new contract highs. Open interest rose 1,000 scatted over several months amid moderate volume.