Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 1/3/14
MORNING MEATS 1/3/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle so far: $137.00 south, Neb. dressed $215-218.00; on 79 boxed loads cut outs weaker at dn. $.19 @ $200.55(c)/dn. $.36 @ $196.05(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $192.51 dn. $.09.

COMMENTS: My concerns posted yesterday fell to the wayside as mentioned. Weather might have trumped my hand or packers have an unlimited bank account to pay up nearly $10.00′s in two weeks for live supplies while beef prices to me are lagging terribly to pay for it. Perhaps the packers were more long the futures to make it up?

Generally that’s not quite enough under these circumstances but hey, good for the feeder. Weekly beef export sales a nothing 2,500t but for 2014 back to light at 9,200t, though HK takes 8,000t of it; weather getting even worse: -20 here early and Monday’s high here seen at -5…possibly a factor, eh? Upside targets arbitrary with $140.00 still bantered around. The beef price equivalent at $140.00 much less here at $137.00 could be breathtaking if priced to margins. I also under estimated the extent of fund participation going into yesterday: up another 6,428 led by J/M/Q amid strong volume…a bull’s technical dream. Nearby support $135.40-135.00 with a bull warning flag at under $134.60 for now. Overbought but…?

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs mixed @ dn. $1.02 (e)/up. $1.82 (w) with rough avg. $77.75; pork cut outs dn. $.16 @ $83.28. Lean index as of 12/31 @ $79.75 up. $.09.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs tough call. Weather is extreme in many areas and will get even worse into early next week. Could be a factor for the futures recovery. Packer cut outs had a festivus miracle recovering from a minus $1.71 midday to just weaker late wire. Weekly pork exports rose 5% to a modest 5,900t (of note China 600t), 2014 at 11,000t; open interest rose 3,15 amid moderate/decent volume…funds coming in? Currently aside now and will advise. Little gap at 86-85.80.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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