Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 1/31/14
MORNING MEATS 1/31/14

CATTLE: Cash cattle so far: Few at $146.00 north-145.00 south; on 89 boxed loads cut outs lower at dn. $1.06 @ $230.79(c)/dn. $.64 @ $229.79(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $217.54 dn. $1.37.

COMMENTS: Futures into new swing lows as the industry seems to reflect that beef demand has peaked near term, packer margins hurt deep enough, and with that lower prices seem on tap this week and likely next week. Longs with profits still scrambling to cash in also a feature. Is there a “however”? Maybe: major storm moving into the Midwest (Chgo. 5-8″, Indianapolis up to 22″? for examples). Now that hurts cattle movement but might also hurt Super Bowl weekend demand? About the only main retail feature was beef for chili though. We may need to test the $140.00 area Feb. in the near future. By the way, Tyson had some interesting data on their earnings report that I’ll report on later. Open interest rose 3,900 led by J/Q indicates bears a bit more aggressive here, volume was moderate/light. Cattle Inventory this afternoon might stop the bleeding at some point here. As may the discount already built-in.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs higher @ up. $.38 (w)/ up. $1.09 (e) with rough avg. (w) $79.75; pork cut outs up. $1.18 @ $90.32 in a quiet trade. Lean index as of 01/29 @ $82.08 up. $.28.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs likely firm as another major snow storm moves in and that will be followed again by frigid temps. What ever happened to the January thaw? Some good news as Japan’s economy seemed to turn solidly better…hello pork exports? Open interest rose 1,200 amid little individual changes, volume moderate. April setting up a test for swing highs at $93.70? As before, I’ll trade charts with this size premium over cash for specs. Draw ones own lines.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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