Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 12/31/13
MORNING MEATS 12/31/13

***NORMAL HOURS (DARN IT!)……………………………………….

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $132.-136.00, Neb. dressed $211-214.00; on 86 boxed loads cut outs higher at up. $2.726 @ $199.71(c)/up. $4.16 @ $195.46(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $191.71 up. $2.75.

COMMENTS: Does record high cash cattle prices mean record high cash beef prices? Usually. And while I give the cattle market its lower numbers its due, before being bullish fundamentally Feb. for an extended run up, I need to figure if possible record high beef prices can compete (for any length of time) with ‘cheap’ chicken and pork prices. Hence, I’ll ignore that for now and enjoy what the charts are bullishly leaning to. Some point to $140.00 as the next upside target fundamentally and if so, good. But there will be a likely bull defense ‘just in case’ and prefer to treat for now as a bullish trading tilt affair. Any worries about Feb. NOT taking out highs at $135.45 yesterday? Open interest rose 3,722 (Apr. up 3,230) amid moderate volume. Not quite a ‘mini-battle’ but close.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs mixed @ up $1.11 (w)/dn. $27 (e) with rough avg. $76.65; pork cut outs up. $.25 @ $83.07. Lean index as of 12/27 @ $79.52 up. $.13.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs steady-ish? Cold weather, big snow storm moving in might be a factor along with the “tax hogs” held back. Pork is basically in a free-fall as before but at some point beef will make it attractive. When? Cannot say. Feb. did not fill its little gap at $84.62-84.60 may or may not be significant. Nonetheless, I’m lowering my bear defense to a move/close over $86.25.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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