Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 12/30/13
MORNING MEATS 12/30/13

CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $132.-136.00, Neb. dressed $211-214.00; on 112 boxed loads cut outs higher at up. $.06 @ $196.99(c)/up. $.84 @ $191.30(s) on moderate demand; Carcass Equivalent: $188.96 up. $.36.

COMMENTS: Up sharply for cash cattle last week, now the interesting work begins: normally, beef prices must rise sharply higher to ‘pay’ for the packer’s largesse and normally at some point beef gets priced out of consumption. When? No hard and fast rule. So for now, the charts had a bullish breakout but needs to take out highs at $135.45 from Oct. to confirm; nearby support $ 134.20-133.85 with a likely bull defense a close under $133.32 for near term traders. Hedgers keep a head’s up. Open interest bullish as it rose 4,646 even as Z/G drops 3800 amid good volume.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs mixed @ up $.15 (w)/dn. $51 (e) with rough avg. $76.35; pork cut outs dn. $2.32 @ $82.82. Lean index as of 12/26 @ $79.26 up. $.03.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs tough call besides weaker due to the blast of arctic cold and snow coming tomorrow. Pig Crop report was neutral to me: All/Breed/Market at 99% while the pigs-per-litter held up at 100%, indicating no PED? Wt. breakdowns 100% mostly, down to 99% for -50lbs. Otherwise, there’s that seasonal possibility of higher hog prices 1st full week of January and of course what happens until beef prices presumably rise sharply. Pork product has been in a ‘fire sale’ of sorts which could end up friendly. Until then, maintaining my likely bear defense over $87.00; using a magnifying glass, saw a slight gap at $84.62-84.60 from August. Let’s see what we have after its filled, if it is of course.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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