CATTLE: Cash cattle so far: $141.-144.00, Neb. dressed $226-228.00; on 66 boxed loads cut outs higher at up. $3.1 @ $239.72(c)/up. $2.70 @ $237.15(s) on very light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $218.15 up. $1.57. Record high cattle/beef prices.
COMMENTS: Current sell-off might be in reaction to the beef movement sparked y overbought technical conditions. Packer margins seen as ‘amply profitable’ and that gives rise to talk of new record high cash cattle prices. Maybe. IF the packers see beef topping they will front-run it i.e. bid lower for live. I’m not smart enough to know what the trigger is. Cattle-On-Feed Friday: avg. est.’s On Feed 94%; Placed 98%; Marketed 102%. Next Wed. Cold Storage: beef stocks estimated at slightly up on month, slightly down on year; open interest rose another 6,700 even as Feb. fell 5,160……sure seems the long side getting more and more saturated. If buying breaks, a move/close under $140.45 Feb. a serious bull warning flag.
Interior cash hogs mixed @ up. $.72 (w)/ Not/Est.(e) with rough avg. n/a; pork cut outs dn. $.83 @ $86.18. Lean index as of 01/20 @ $79.91 dn. $.07.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs called about steady. Arctic cold and shipping logistics a factor. Backing up hogs? I/M wts. rose another .11lbs. to 283.7 and up 9lbs. on yr. Perhaps near term April will fail on its highly premium rally. Open interest rose 3,900 even as Feb. drops 2600 amid moderate volume. April at/under $91.17 seems a likely bull warning flag.