CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $130.-131.00, Neb. dressed $206-207.00; on 107 boxed loads cut outs mixed at up. $1.08 @ $199.97(c)/ up. $1.40 @ $188.41(s) on light/moderate demand; Carcass Equivalent: $189.88 up. $.07.
COMMENTS: Everything I read considers the rally yesterday as buying off the turn around in the beef. Well, after the ‘fire sale’ in beef it might merely be for “immediate ship” i.e. last minute fill-in retail buying. Time will tell. As for the charts, not major new buying: open interest rose 2,1498 even as Dec. dropped 1225 (Feb. up 1087, likely rolling, and the rest little changed) amid light volume. Prices now in an 8-day range looking for a breakout. I’ll maintain likely defense area. OH, and some talk weather played a factor on ideas of lowered wt. gains. ‘Tis the season’. I am not overtly bearish down here but little bullish cash news I can use.
Interior cash hogs @ (e) N/E/dn. $3.94(w), avg.$75.50; pork cut outs up. $3.01 @ $90.68. Lean index as of 12/13 @ $80.94 dn. $.08.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs steady early? I am always suspicious when a major interior market falls $3-$4.00 and cut outs jump nearly $4.00. Suspicious because that type of deal puts packers in the black and might be set up for an end-year cash market bounce. Futures into new lows and an obvious target near term $86.-85.00 for now; lowering our likely bear defense area to a move/close over $88.50. Open interest rose 1,202 led by Feb. up 1,435 amid light volume.