CATTLE: Cash cattle so far: $141.-144.00, Neb. dressed $226-228.00; on 82 boxed loads cut outs higher at up. $4.85 @ $236.56(c)/up. $5.13 @ $234.95(s) on light demand; Carcass Equivalent: $216.58 up. $3.39. Record high cattle/beef prices.
COMMENTS: Exponential. The rate of incline for the beef prices. Sit back in awe. Like the ‘ring around the rosy’, it will end. I shot a beef price-arrow up into the air, where it lands nobody knows. I do not know where the pain threshold is. As such, we can only opine risk after a new record high Feb. of $141.00, which is STILL discount to the cash cattle trade. Weather still arctic and another snow storm to move out east; open interest up another 4,600 even as Feb. drops 4,100 amid moderate volume; C-O-T report: leaned only moderately negative. Risk tough to define still if buying breaks. Showlists: Neb. up 12,000hd., Tx./Ks. not much change.
One very good thing: the cattlemen are finally getting some income relief.
Interior cash hogs mixed @ up. $.27 (w)/dn. $.74 (e) with rough avg. $77.00; pork cut outs up. $.64 @ $88.15. Lean index as of 01/17 @ $79.98 dn. $.12.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs called mixed early largely on weather. PEV on major radio over the weekend; open interest rose 1,212 even as Feb. drops 2400 amid light-side volume; C-O-T report: neutral. The best thing here has been prices held important support on the last break. My fear is backup due to the weather and shipping fears as well. Not to mention buying a premium in the April, as before if probing long side use the Feb. for now. Neutral.