CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $132-133.00 and $207-208.00 dressed; on 141 boxed loads cut outs Choice $204.56 dn. $.69, select $190.62 up. $.64 on moderate/good demand: Carcass Equivalent: $194.41 dn. $.48.
COMMENTS: Cash cattle likely will be lower as packers cut back kills and with choice beef losing ground to select beef though movement picked up late yesterday; tomorrow’s USDA report might also contribute to a light trade today if live presents no surprises; open interest rose 1,001 even as Dec. falls 4,588 amid moderate volume; technically no change to my points but will advise that if February closes under $133.10 it might confirm and ‘old school’ distribution top we talked about awhile back; Weekly beef export sales:………..uh, oh, will need to get a reason for this: a minus (-)18,500t with cancellations from HK @ 6300t, Mx. 6,000t, Japan 3,300t and even Chile 900t and Taiwan 600t….Zilmax? Whatever, seemed bearish and helps explain the “reversals” on the charts? C-O-T report: leaned neutral as of Oct. 29th.
Interior cash hogs yesterday mixed @ off $1.69/up $.97, rough avg. $81.00; pork cut outs at $92.91, dn. $.50. Lean index as of 11/05 $87.03 dn. $.55.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs likely weak as major interior markets try to hold the $80.00 mark; however the pork trade losing ground overall; late Thanksgiving drags the pork demand (and beef) a week longer; bacon and eggs and sausage demand? coffee at lowest since 2006 and O.J. at multi-year lows (hmmm. one could spin that either way); open interest fell 2,409 led by Dec. off 7653 amid moderate/good volume; weekly pork export sales: 12,700t, off near 50% on the week, Mx. took 5100t and China 500t; C-O-T report for Oct. 29th leaned slightly negative. No opinion change.