Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 11/1/13
MORNING MEATS 11/1/13

CATTLE: Cash cattle this week $131-134.00 and $208-20 9.00 dressed; on 98 boxed loads cut outs Choice $205.07 dn. $.51, select $190.08 dn. $.01 on light demand: Carcass Equivalent: $194.49 dn. $.52.

COMMENTS: OK, were the reversals justified? Well, while the cattle on feed marketing number was better than expected (106%), as you know I look at the freezer stocks to see if they “jive”…..they do not, for me anyway as beef stocks rose 3% on month and 5% on year (delayed report but anyone find it curious how October expired?); retail reports suggests steaks and roasts and….bacon (see below)?;

South Korea says might lift ban on growth hormone in early 2014; open interest rose 1,857 amid moderate volume; I am holding negative on rallies.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs yesterday lower @ off $98/1.16, rough avg. $83.35; pork cut outs at $94.07 up. $1.65. Lean index as of 10/30 $89.17 dn. $.58.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs mixed with some support off the turn around in cut outs overnight with money put on hams, loins and ribs; one could say the cold storage report was a bit friendly vs. estimates but still total pork rose 3% on month (the bellies curious and explains a big price run up in Sept. as freezer stocks rose 18% on month and now up 45% on year….guess that’s why significant features at retail showing up rather contra-seasonally); chicken stocks up on month, down on yr.; open interest little changed in total even as December drops 4,147 (rolled to the back) amid moderate volume. I’m holding to ‘key reversal’ of a demand top if not also a rise in numbers and wts.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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