Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 10/31/13
MORNING MEATS 10/31/13

OCTOBER CATTLE/FEEDER CATTLE EXPIRE TODAY AT NOON****************

CATTLE: Cash cattle this week $131-134.00 and $208-20 9.00 dressed; on 110 boxed loads cut outs Choice $205.08 up $1.44, select $190.09 up. $1.97 on moderate demand: Carcass Equivalent: $195.01 up $.64. *****END OF MONTH TRADING*****

COMMENTS: Few sales reported out of Kansas at $212.00 dressed; weekly beef export sales for weeks of Oct. 10th, 17th, qnd 24th at 55,500t (or 18,500t/week and as such just was improved and supportive overall but moderately so); C-O-T report for Oct. 15th was slightly negative; Cargill now says officially stopped buying cattle with Zilmax; saw a YTD Canada to U.S. all cattle numbers and are up 20,000hd. on year (why then the Tyson rumor?); open interest rose 2,187 amid decent volume. As before, I distrust a bull market that keeps making big reversals after making new highs before doing so…..have to a bear warning flag. As such into the breech I go and opting to sell rallies in this latest evolved trading affair. Hedges MUST take protection, call or email me for strategy but do something “just in case” as they say.
Cold Storage this afternoon as is the delayed cattle-on-feed report.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs yesterday lower west only, rough avg. $84.70 (east/west) pork cut outs at $92.42 dn. $1.58. Lean index as of 10/29 $89.75 dn. $.75.

COMMENTS: Cash hogs weak early as the pork trade takes a hit; 3-week weekly pork export sales at 23,500t (avg. 7800t which is poor); C-O-T report from Oct. 15th was slightly friendly (remember: couple week’s old); YTD hog imports from Canada up

5,000hd.; open interest rose 2,284 amid moderate/good volume; a “key reversal” that I have not yet had contested (thanks Vince!) makes me bearish, old school or not; likely sell area $90.75-91.20, likely bear defense a new high by 10-cents; maintain all hedges; Cold Storage this afternoon.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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