CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $129-131.00 and $203-204.00 dressed; on 129 boxed loads cut outs Choice $199.33 up $1.04, select $183.03 up. $1.38 on moderate demand: Carcass Equivalent: not available likely for a few more days.
COMMENTS: I may stand corrected on beef’s action: believed the sharply higher prices not a precursor to higher cash cattle but more so paying off last week’s largess; granted October still in the week’s live trade at $129-131.00 which would indicate a more steady outlook. I do believe domestic demand has cooled off withe cool,wet weather but perhaps the weaker U.S. dollar has helped beef exports more than I would have expected. Whatever, futures getting close to negating its ‘reversal’ as it nears the higher end of last Thursday’s range of $134.00-$131.22; hedges remain in order but speculatively can be a light seller $133.50 with well defined risk. Open interest rose 3,268 led by April up 1,010 and rest modest changes, volume light-side.
Interior cash hogs yesterday dn. $.46/$1.88, rough avg. $86.50; pork cut outs at $95.11 dn. $.31. Lean index as of 10/21 $91. 06 up. $.65.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs called steady/dn. $1.00 on apparent packer ideas more hogs are around the corner due to intensified harvest activity. Futures not all that concerned about it apparently and like beef some talk U.S. dollar weakness aiding meat exports; I/M wts. 277.1 vs. 277.0 wk. vs. 271.7yr.; open interest rose 1,846 led by April up 1,183 amid very light volume; we’ll look to probe the short side at $89.00 using the highs as a likely bear defense for a trading turn. Maintain hedges.