Kleist Comments

MORNING MEATS 10/18/13
MORNING MEATS 10/18/13

CATTLE: Cash cattle so far week $128.-129.00 south, north $128-131.00 and $203-204.00 dressed; on 110 boxed loads cut outs Choice $191.03, select $181.72…no comparison: Carcass Equivalent: not available likely for a few days.

COMMENTS: I am aware of a possible strike at a beef plant in Greely, Colo. but would that be enough to cause a huge ‘key reversal’ on the charts that also had 2 other components going for it: big volume (75,400) and a jump in open interest (up 3,083 even as Oct./Dec. fell 3,200)…classic key reversal? Old school says yes, new school says ‘suck it up’, it’s a buying opportunity’. Well, I’ll show my age by respecting the reversal especially since I mentioned my bull-concerns yesterday morning. At least hedges were a reasonable rec. For now anyway. Speculatively need to sell rallies, for now at $132.50-133.35 and likely bear defense a new contract high. No cattle-on-feed report. USDA past export sales for beef/pork might be released early next week in a catch up deal.

HOGS:

Interior cash hogs yesterday not available west and at $89.51 east (no comparison); pork cut outs at $95.26 (no comp).

COMMENTS: Gotta love these packers: to weeks without interior quotes and they black out the western/I-M corn belt interior prices due ‘confidentiality’ in A.M. and none so far for their P.M. Did notice a major jump in pork boxed loads yesterday vs. when they went black-out (514 loads vs. 200-300loads) but need to see if consistent and not catch-up; reversal yesterday but not a ‘key reversal’ still might be a warning flag or a reminder that there usually is a strong seasonal down here into mid-November. Futures probe of the short side with a conservative likely bear defense simply a new contract high.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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