MORNING MEATS 04/30/13
END OF MONTH
CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $128-130.00. Neb. dressed $204.00; On 99 boxed loads cut outs: choice up. $1.90 at $194.79, select up. $1.79 at $186.12 on light demand. Carcass Equivalent: $185.19 up. $2.63.
COMMENTS: Sharply higher beef, discount to the live market, a bullish grain trade, warmer weather etc. and yet open interest says rally was all shortovering (off 2,652 includes April off 1735 AND June off 2993), volume light side. Point being, where are the funds? Or the big specs even? No commitment to the long side. Another reason not to marry the market but keep as a trading affair.
Interior cash hogs yesterday higher west only at up. $1.09/$1.17, rough avg. $83.20 (1st time I recall the eastern corn belt even unquoted in final wire) ; cut outs up. $.14 @ $87.22; lean index as of 04/26 at $82.42 up. $1.00.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs seen firm early again. The pork trade was mixed in the primal cuts but not bad enough to hurt packer margins much. New swing highs yesterday and June topped at the highest since mid-Feb. before retreating. However, like the cattle pit there’s no sweeping rush to own hog futures with open interest little changed (of note, early rolling June, dn.1651, into the July, up 1040?) volume moderate. Use the charts. Basic bias has been sell cattle rallies at discount and buy hog futures at premium.