MORNING MEATS 04/24/13
CATTLE: Cash cattle last week $126-126.50. Neb. dressed $200-202.00; On 120 boxed loads cut outs: choice up. $.63 at $191.41, select up. $.11 at $183.78 on moderate demand. Carcass Equivalent: $181.66 up. $.37.
COMMENTS: Another choppy day setting up? This weekend temps. in the midwest expected in the 60-70’s might provide some underlying support for NEXT week’s cash cattle trade. I was disturbed to read one article that said retailers already buying for BBQ promo’s and better beef demand…are we in the seasonal then? Pretty flat. Nonetheless I’ll look for better things on beef demand and for now still look in the $119’s to probe June longs for trading turns or raise it some to the low $120’s. A close over $123.02 (50-day) needed to ‘right’ the market. Open interest rose 2,710 led by August up 1319 amid moderate volume.
Interior cash hogs yesterday mixed at dn. $.33/up $.07, rough avg. $76.50; cut outs up. $1.11 @ $85.65; lean index as of 04/22 at $80.88 dn. $.21.
COMMENTS: Cash hogs quiet early. The way the packer’s “new” cut outs have been acting surprised cash hogs are not much better. Nonetheless it was all cash bellies up $5.00; I/M wts. 277.1 up .6lb. on wk., up .2lbs. on year (not a good sign?); Taiwan reports 1st new human bird flu case outside of China; China’s KFC stocks (Yum) downgraded (this time the colonel is not amused); open interest rose 4,478 amid light volume….’mini-battle’ shaping up? One might think the premiums need to be hit hard but for now I’ll keep the likely bear defense +$72.25 for now (over $71.25 a bear warning flag).