Kleist Comments

Morning Grains 4/17/13
Morning Grains 4/17/13

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.

Comments: You know, almost every bull article I read continues one theme: planting delays and Brazilian shipping delays. I do not disagree that it is supportive to a degree but it is also not bullish, unless significantly extended. Since we also do not have funds on a bullish-buy trigger anymore, even that phase not sustainable. And in a major change of face, I read one article that said global inflationary fears (long gold) were well overestimated (to long U.S. dollar). In other news: cold and ‘unsettled’ weather to slow fieldwork BUT favors recharging soil moisture; open interest fell 13,515 led by May off 19,100 amid moderate/light volume; had a quick in and out yesterday as May whipsawed a bit but basic short positions need to be maintained (likely defense as before).

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Tight old crop and Brazilian delays continues to underpin the front months…and I believe it’s a false sense of bullish security over $14.00 but it is what it is; China report said covered through mid-June with 2nd half meal demand questioned
over bird flu; Asian CPO at year’s lows over demand outlooks; China futures a bit higher, still off the Ag Minister’s acreage estimate; open interest rose 1400 even as May fell 12,400 (July up 10,900 in a roll apparently), volume moderate. No pressing the short side in here (but buying near money puts July) and biding my time with new future shorts. No confirmation of China buying old crop U.S. but that remains the talk (good: more to cancel?)

Wheat:
Exports: Japan in 105,425t
U.S./Can./Aust.

Comments: I find it curious that after wheat was supposed to be the darling of the fund class, its bull-luster getting seriously tarnished. Guess U.S. HRW weather problems finally gave way to world supply realities. My old phrase for it is….it’s a local problem in global terms; Russian plantings at 4.8% done and ahead of last year (very likely the Black Sea area will again be a competitive problem for us); Europe gets crop improving weather; U.N.’s FAO says Egypt’s low currency reserves to hit wheat imports and that its expected record crop could be hindered with less money for diesel and fertilizer, Egypt estimates imports to fall 10%. Open interest fell 2900 amid moderate volume. Like the corn I see wheat as a resumed bear market in waiting.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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