Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 8/5/14
MORNING GRAINS 8/5/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: If all we are trading is weather, then there’s little to get excited about and certainly no reason to bottom pick. “Big Picture” weather remains favorable; crop ratings fell 2% to 73% gd./excel. not a big deal and as expected; Commerzebank remarked that while China now has some drought in corn areas, there’s basically plenty of corn in reserves (hence no extra import needs); Rabobank lowers its price est. for Oct./Dec. to $3.50 (my long held target for Dec.); FCStone says yields 172.4bu./acre and a 14.455bln.crop; open interest rose 4100 amid moderate/light volume. Test of the double low at hand?

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Forget weather, this was reason enough for the morning’s price contraction: open interest up 2600 amid very light volume yesterday. Brazil’s AgRural says plantings could increase near 5% and have a crop of 94mln.m/t’s! (USDA 91ml.); FCStone says 46bu./acre and a 3.865bln. crop here. Extremely volatile ‘consolidation’ obviously. Weather outlooks not all that bad really. Contract lows to be tested? Beware the air.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Spring wheat 70% gd./excel. unchanged; winter harvest 90% vs. 95% avg.; open interest rose 2500 even as Sept. falls 3200 amid good volume. As before, I cannot get bulled-up over quality problems in parts of Europe; my technical area at $5.43 has become a pivot point currently and tough to believe the lows are in yet.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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