Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 8/28/14
MORNING GRAINS 8/28/14

Corn: **1st notice day Friday…..check your Sept. positions….
Exports: South Korea in 260,000t opt/org.
Comments: Weekly export sales a minus (-) 32,700t as Unknown cancels 172,900t along with So.Korea 48,800t and several more countries; new crop sales 695,600t; shipments off 10%; …………………..End of month and long weekend (drats! reopens at 7:00 Mon. evening I understand); open interest fell 13,100 led by Sept. off 23,300 amid moderate volume; there’s been talk about the lower prices have importer’s interest…OK but seems more ‘window shopping’ really. Let’s see if December will close back over its 20-day m/a at $3.69; many traders taking a longer weekend I suspect and will make for thinner action along with positioning ahead of deliveries and the longer weekend.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales a minus (-) 62,800t off 30% led by cancellations from China (55,500t) and Taiwan (15,400t); new crop sales big at 1.291mln.m/t’s led by China at 655,000t, Vietnam 112,200t (Vietnam an up and coming customer as they expand livestock production). Product demand? Soymeal sales 1,100t, even new crop weak at 76,100t with soyoil exports a minus (-) 11,300t as Unknown cancels 15,500t. Perhaps the thin trade, positioning ahead of deliveries (none expected this early of course) and the near weekend will allow it. And finally: Univ. of Il. reportedly said be wary of crop tours, they can be “useful” but “not likely to have a high degree of reliability”….nicely said; open interest rose 5,400 led by Jan. and the March, amid light volume (again)

Wheat:
Exports:
Comments: Weekly export sales rose 94% to 403,600t (yes, it was that low last week) led by Brazil* at 94,400t but a good mix of countries involved; charts and the increase will suggest we hit a “value” area?
Apparently the rally overnight tied to renewed Ukraine/Russian tensions and that pesky quality issue in Europe; speaking of which French fund Agritel sees enough quality to serve ‘usual customers'; Ukraine’s no problem as Ag Min. sees 1st 8 weeks of marketing year exports higher than in 2013’s, though admits production could fall to 55mln.m/t’s vs. 63mln. on loss of Crimea and fighting in the southeast areas; open interest fell 1600 led by Sept. off 3900 amid light volume; December now needs a close over $5.71 (overnight high/14-day high at $5.75) to turn me near term neutral; an upside breakout near term if it holds; I have no problem with fund/spec short shortcovering with end-of-month profits and ahead of deliveries. I have doubts about demand at much higher prices.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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