Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 8/22/14
MORNING GRAINS 8/22/14

Corn: ****Sept. serial options expire today………………..
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Futures still taking a lot of bear news generally in stride now. Rallies are contained by apparent overhead cash sales of old cop that needs to come in pre-harvest and after another week of poor old crop export sales. There are some ‘positives’, in theory at least: talk that yields will NOT go above 170/bu. avg.; excessive rains to delay harvest (a big maybe but one can say it); Brazil’s largest Co-Op sees plantings off 9%; charts saturated with shorts and a short term uptrend developing? As mentioned I respect ‘key reversals’, but need some reason to believe it more. Open interest little hanged in total amid moderate volume.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: Sold China 120,000t new crop.
Comments: OK, now I get it: old crop September squeezed by ideas rain-delayed harvests will preclude much early harvest supplies. Right. November beans post a new contract low yesterday as supplies will likely be ‘less tight’ then in October; Asian CPO posts sharply lower, new 5-year low, close on talk of China’s “clamp down” on bank credit and ample supplies; Brazil’s major Co-Op sees plantings up 8%: open interest rose 4,400 amid light volume (to me it’s ‘spooky’ how the volume has stayed low on the decline in prices (Nov./back) but explains an eroding market). However for now no opinion change. Near tem Nov. close over $10.66-1/2 to turn neutral near term.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: As wheat hobbles along but holds old lows more talk of a bottom obviously filters in; talk of quality problems in Europe and a lower Canada crop have been of little upside value; open interest fell 7,400 led by Sept. off 5,500, March off 1700 amid decent volume. Basically Dec. has been in a 9-day range either side of its 20-day m/a; I still feel comfortable using my major m/a’s as the likely bear defense as it comes down to $5.70-1/4-5.74-3/4, close over to turn me neutral.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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