Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 8/21/14
MORNING GRAINS 8/21/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Here’s another good reason our ‘key reversal’ is in danger: old crop weekly export sales a nothing at 99,000t that included many switches from China and Unknown, along with cancellations from China (64,400t) and Unknown (250,500t); new crop sales just 719,300t. Come pre- harvest, on farm stocks will need to move as well and might give us a crunch in prices; crop tour western Iowa and Ill. seeing above year ago levels likely no surprise but adds to weak exports….hey, importers are watching our crop also; ethanol use up on cheap corn helping that segment a least, and the livestock producers; Old Farmer’s Almanac apparently sees “Super Cold” winter in 2/3rds of eastern U.S….. wonder what the wooly worms or the rabbit colors will say?; open interest fell 5,300 led by Sept. off 18,500 amid moderate volume. December corn having trouble a its 20-day m/a at $3.70 and while overall near term looks range bound, the major downtrend looks to resume its downward trek.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Looks like old crop ‘less tight’? as weekly export sales a negative (-)89,600t as China cancels 119,000t (they’ll buy it cheaper thanks you); new crop sales 1.42mln.m/t’s; meal sales light at 99,800t and soyoil jumped to 15,700t thanks to Mexico (10,100t); Asian CPO prices drop on reported weak China buying; China MPM data comes in weak; NOAA to update Sept. and 90-day outlooks today; China sells only 24.3% of its auction; open interest little changed in total even as Sept. falls 4600 amid better but still light volume; new contract lows yesterday; November needs to close over $10.68-1/2 to stabilize the decline. Late: a wire service reports firmer corn and beans this morning due to missed rains in parts of Iowa. Right.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales fell 38% to 209,200t…not good KemoSabe and what keeps the market from rallying much…also Brazil canceled 58,800t and others cancel 69,000t; open interest fell 2,100 led by Sept. off 10,900 amid good volume; needs to close back over $5.59-1/2 near term to at least stabilize the decline.

 

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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