Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 8/20/13
MORNING GRAINS 8/20/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: 61% gd, excel. dn. 3% on week and in line; dent 11% vs. 30% avg.; big Ag conference in Indiana: KS State Ag Economist says corn will fall more vs. bean prices and ‘significantly’ so with $4.30 Dec. corn seen and an ample crop overall vs. tight bean supplies (relatively I guess); crop tour no surprises; weather? Certainly NOT the hot & dry of old, just 90’s August (dog days, remember?) weather temps. (what a concept); open interest little changed in total, some rolling Sept/Dec. noted, volume moderate. Correction coming? 50% from top to bottom puts us at $4.65 if a meaningful one occurs; no change from yesterday’s hedge rec.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: KSUniv. Economist say beans will outpace corn prices on tighter supplies, later plantings and potential frost (see corn); 90’s temps. this week but a chance of t-storms now for Wed. and Thursday I understand; 62% gd./excel. dn. 2% on week, pods set 72% vs. 81% avg.; Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) another round of good exports (getting notice at discount vs. soyoil); Australian Ag Conference: U.S.. bean/meal exports could fall 17% on year to South East Asia on a significant decline in demand (Thailand on shrimp disease, Indonesia government import restrictions on meal); open interest rose 14,000 (!!!) amid moderate volume and the start of a battle over the extent of the premium needed and after an over $1.50/bu. correction. Yesterday started my new hedging rec’s and will stay with that for now in near the money put options, holding off futures speculatively in case of a whipsaw (I lean that way just not enmasse’).

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Spring wheat 66% gd./excel. unchanged on week. That’s it, good night. China spring wheat areas rains to delay harvest? Open interest little changed in total, volume good. We’ll try to see when wheat acts more independently from the corn as a possible individually generated trade.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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