Kleist Comments


Comments: Well, our ‘key reversal’ getting some traction? Hope so, need a decent rally to get more hedges set. Nonetheless, all the reasons the big picture remains bearish but needs to be replaced for a bit and deal with the technical. Switching to the Dec. contract, over night it filed its chart gap; might be set for its 1st weekly higher close in a while. Little fresh fundamental news around, weather still looks decent. Open interest fell 8,000 led by Sept. off 13,800 amid moderate volume. Would like to see $3.85-3.95.

Exports: Sold China 110,000t new crop.
Comments: 10 soybean deliveries at the last minute, stopped by ADM house however; Asian palm oil prices new 5 yr. low on weak export data; NOPA at 11:00, avg. est. 116mln.bu.; tight near term stocks seen holding new crop prices together…..but that could change quickly; I have no problem looking for corn rally but cannot say the same for the beans as mentioned; weather forecasts looks good; a client in Iowa does mention his area (central/west) not particularly good looking crops…but as in other areas to me seems a ‘local’ problem; open interest little changed in total, Nov. off 1900, amid light volume (again); Close over $10.74-1/4 might stabilize the break, we look for an area to add hedges.
By the way, one can read some articles from the from the land of the ever-bullish that soybeans will see RECORD exports. What many do not say, production will be RECORD large with it. It’s a causal relationship. Find a better reason to be bullish.

Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Talk about quiet. No significant change of news, on wheat, from Europe nor Black Sea nor exports here; open interest fell 1600 led by Sept. off 2600 amid moderate volume. September wheat trying to keep its basing action but I also see a ‘mini-head & shoulders’ forming possibly. Use corn rallies to look to sell wheat. Higher prices still cutting back exports and need to change that before getting bullish. Close over major m/a’s could do it.

Fun facts: Ever wonder why there’s an old time saying that goes
“…there are lies, damn lies, and statistics”? Someone might think that as StatsCanada revised it July employment data from just 200 to a new, improved 41,700 new jobs created!

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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