Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 7/25/13
MORNING GRAINS 7/25/13

Corn:

Exports: So. Korea buys 120,000t Black Sea.

Comments: Weekly export sales old crop a minus (-)27,900t as Unknown cancels 96,200t; new crop sales 575,900t led by Unknown/China; some talk now an early southern harvest will result in corn shipped back up north (seems to back up Sept’s losing ground on spreads); U.P. in Michigan reported 35 degrees overnight; open interest rose 3,400 amid moderate/light volume. December near my low-end near term downside objective and as such moving to protect more hedge equity (seems to me by the way that there could be a change of dance since July is corn’s month and that has been beneficial and discounted while beans were free to fly and spread vs. corn; well by next week perhaps with August’s forecasts looking favorable, beans then get to deal with that and unwinding occurs).

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales old crop up 16% to 128,300t led by Asia and Unknown, shipments fell 33%; meal sales light at 184,000t, shipments market year low; soyoil sales modest at 3,200t, shipments market year low; Malaysian palm oil futures hits 3-year low; open interest fell 4,400 led by August off 7,000 amid moderate volume. I freely and regrettably admit the money game in the August beans kept me from shorting futures in the November as tough to determine risk. At least the put buying was a good idea. And finally: An article about our beans out of Singapore was interesting in that the writer said beans fell 2.1% because of high domestic supplies due to a higher than expected old crop harvest and that farmers/traders have beans “well above market expectations”.

Wheat:

Exports: Iraq buys 50,000t Aust.; Japan buys 107,371t U.S./Can/Aust.

Comments: Weekly export sales fell hard from the previous week’s large amount but still decent at 661,400t, led by China at 177,900t; Wheat tour sees lower yields on day 2 at 45.1bu.acre vs. tour year ago 45.5bu,, combined 2 day at 44,1bu. same as last year; open interest little changed in total, some Sept./Dec. roll apparent, amid moderate volume. Wheat will likely hit a near term low when corn does; best then I can say is Sept. holding around our new downside objective of $6.50. Will see if we need a new one.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.