Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 7/16/13
MORNING GRAINS 7/16/13

Corn:

Exports: None visible.

Comments: A combination of December holding its important chart support yesterday and crop ratings gd./excel., coming in 2% lower (western cornbelt) seems backgrounding the recovery. I also wonder if funds are defending positions after the ratings gave the managers some extra incentives? Open interest little changed in total and individually amid light volume. Well, looks like some type of weather premium being built back in, taking it by steps then would look for December’s next upside target $5.26. Keep in mind forecasts did take rains out of and if put back in we’ll whipsaw. 66% gd./excel. dn. 2%; silking16% vs. 35% avg.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Once more the gift that keeps on giving performing well (August beans) with the weather change adding a bit of urgency perhaps for the new batch of shorts getting creamed. Crop ratings as expected fell 2% to 65% gd./excel.; 26% blooming vs. 40% avg.; Asian CPO at 7-month lows on lower vegoil demand especially from India and China; China futures higher on CBOT rally (China major crop areas weather mixed, not a major problem but conditions did change a bit); open interest fell 3700 amid light volume. November already took out is medium term objective at $12.82-3/4 (200 day), next to $13.00? We are back to my ‘old’ (last week) upside objective but for now buying puts.

Wheat:

Exports: Japan in 112,176t U.S./Can./Aust.

Comments: India’s new food security program will provide ‘mostly’ free food to 70% on the population but says they will still have excess grains for export (I need more info on this, if exports a cut due to the program the world scene changes appreciably); U.S. HRW harvest 67% vs. 71%, spring wheat conditions fell 2% to 70% gd./excel. (led by N.Dak. dn. 5%); open interest rose 3,730 amid moderate/light volume. No opinion change.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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