Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 7/10/14
MORNING GRAINS 7/10/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales rose 25%! to…..363,000t, of note Unknown cancels 424,900t and China 60,000t plus a bunch of ‘switches’ into the sales; USDA report a toss up? Old crop feed use might have been overstated and recent cancellations of exports might increase old crop carryover; some talk of lowered harvested acres could show up for new crop carry but I understand the USDA has only 3x’s in the last 24 yrs. did they change yield; open interest rose 5,100 even as N/U falls 5,0000 amid moderate volume (increases to Z’15 in O/I).

Report: very doubtful a friendly number will turn bear into a bull as long as the weather cooperates and demand keeps fading.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: Sold Unknown 60,000t old crop and 60,000t new crop; sold China 118,000 new crop.
Comments: Weekly export sales rose 59%! to……56,300t but, what the hell call it bullish and give us a rally, of note CHINA BUYS 59,200t? old crop while Unknown cancels 86,000t; meal sales fell 41% to a nothing figure and soyoil fell 34%; I understand USDA only 1X changed its June/July ylds. in 28yrs.; old crop
carry: it’s a hornet’s nest between cancellations, new sales and imports; new crop not likely changed at all. Open interest rose 5,200 led by F/N amid moderate volume, rest scattered.

Report: I’ll hand it to old crop bean buyers opting U.S. origin vs. South American origin…”such a deal!”; We need a ‘meaningful rally’ to sell I believe.
Weather for August main focus and will likely still be so post-report.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales fell hard to 338,100t, even as Unknown cancelling 43,500t not a significant factor….importers getting a better deal elsewhere; open interest rose 2,500 amid moderate volume.

Report: No take on the report as numbers might not matter anyway.
Overall, one big negative could be world ending stocks increasing for beans/corn/wheat.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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