MORNING GRAINS 7/01/13
Exports: So. Korea in undisclosed amount Tues.
Comments: Started off where we left off Friday: July bull spreads on Quarterly stocks and new crop pressure on that surprising acreage number and decent overall weather; Asia report says renewed buying for new crop U.S. on this break in prices; open interest fell 15,600 led by July off 13,000 amid strong volume. December corn blasted out of its months-long trading range and now have to see if psychological support off $5.00 will be enough to hold it…doubtful if weather forecasts hold up…question is where to short it and defend it? The report suggests $4.50 or lower corn but there’s still a month here weather has to cooperate. And have yet to totally believe the USDA planting numbers.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: July a gem of a squeeze as it closes in on $16.00; the report acting out again i.e. stocks bullish July and acreage/weather bearish new crop; China futures lower on CBOT action on plantings; open interest fell 10,500 led by July off 4800 and November off 9,400 amid good volume. November fell nearly $1.00 from early June and seems in some ways to have discounted the increase in acres and considering August is the “beans-time” a month away, $12.40-12.230 might be the worst on a follow through break. C-O-T report: even with the large numbers that changed in each category I found no ‘tilt’ to use.
Exports: Iraq in 50,000t opt/org.
Comments: Wheat trying to find its legs again like early Friday but corn’s weakness keeping buyers wary. The reports Friday were roughly neutral and export demand, amid other anecdotal reasons mentioned, was positive. On the charts not so: fell out of bed last week under multi-month lows. Hence except for the call/call spreads not probing the future’s long side. Open interest little changed amid good volume; C-O-T report: surprisingly neutral.