Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 6/6/14
MORNING GRAINS 6/6/14

************70TH ANNIVERSARY OF D-DAY………….
NEVER FORGET………………….
Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Maybe it being the end of week, largely oversold, slowed cash movement and maybe some importers sniffing around can stabilize the break we experiencing. If buying day trades only. Yesterday’s weekly export sales slightly improved but still ‘routine’ and importers know we have the prospects of a huge crop on our hands. Open interest rose another 9,600 even as July falls 13,000 amid decent volume; Informa slightly increased Brazil and Argentine corn crops; funds start their ‘roll’ apparently out of the July today; I understand Argentine corn at $208/t vs. U.S. $211.00; new swing lows overnight. Weather? Forecasts look good, perhaps Sunday night they’ll take a turn for the worse. About the only wild card for the bulls.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: South American beans apparently quoted at $45.00/t under the U.S.; my take on the weekly export sales for old crop: deals were cut for some countries to included unknown and China cancellations still floating around…hence the July dropped hard as we know the game; saw a report from an overseas trader that data suggested China animal feed production (includes soymeal obviously) has slowed as soymeal demand lagged a general increase in oilseed demand since 2008 and food demand just rising 1% a year since 2008 (that’s a surprise for those that talk about bacon-wrapped egg rolls). Open interest fell 1900 as July falls 14,500 amid moderate volume. On the charts: head & shoulders anyone? Not a ‘mini’ one but a well defined one in the offing? Important range support coming in at $14.50-14.40 and a few closes under that might confirm the H&S.
Wheat:
Exports: Turkey buys 165,000t opt/org.?
Comments: No need to regurgitate yesterday’s export sales report, it was poor and still says other countries are undercutting us as overseas crops are in good shape.
India’s Monsoon arrives to a party atmosphere over the mainland but forecasters say it will be a slow one (that’s good isn’t it?); Russia raises its crop outlook by 1.0mln.m/t’s and its exports by 2.0mln.; Informa’s slight decrease in the U.S. winter wheat crop actually a negative to me; open interest rose 1800 even as July falls 3900 amid decent volume. The $6.00 level seems more a sentimental favorite than a rock-hard bull defense. Like the corn and beans for now, perhaps a light pre-weekend correction will play out.

I regret yesterday my high-speed internet was out most of the day (Comcast) and I could not get to another source of info that I need to be complete as I need to be.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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