Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 6/4/14
MORNING GRAINS 6/4/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: New swing lows as new selling, weather and exports conspire to keep pressure on the market. Many are looking for an oversold rally but for about a week now and dangerous to bottom pick; my near term support mentioned yesterday held and did so this morning, though tough to find a solid reason to bottom pick for a trading turn. Did find his interesting: one major wire service said $48bln. investor money was pulled from U.S. Exchanges the last 5 months. Guess nobody likes a bear (exception, me).

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Guess yesterday was a ‘bull gift’ and not bad considering the bounce off the recent lows; for 3-days now the July beans have held their major m/a’s and for now remains its likely bull defense on a close under $14.79-14.72. For the other months, similar but seems dependent on the July as Nov. barely holding its major m/a’s at $12.28-12.24 (August yes holding as well); while the other day open interest suggested funds were ‘defending’ those m/a’s, yesterday open interest fell 4,000 led by July off 14,000….so perhaps a rolling defense, volume moderate. Not much else around: heavy rains in parts of the Midwest seen a net positive for the crop, delayed plantings not significant; China sold 73% of its beans put up for adoption

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Russian plantings up on year with spring wheat plantings seen up 1.3mln. HA and with corn up 227,000ha and barley up .5mln.ha; China’s Ag Minister sees another record year of grain production, now 11 years in a row; one province in China begins what harvesting. Open interest fell 2400 led by July off 5900 amid strong volume. July wheat almost filled its gap to $6.10-1/2 (low $6.10-3/4 electronic) from Feb. 28th and I suspect some talk about oversold, not filling the gap, lower prices to extend exports etc.,etc. a good reason for a rally. Ok but if bottom humping keep it real. And no marriage.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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