Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 6/26/14
MORNING GRAINS 6/26/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales dull at 321,400t but up sharply from bottom feeding levels last week; part of the problem? Unknown cancels 327,700t (remember that export buying spree of awhile back?) and China cancels another 60,000t. Speaking of the red menace, Commerzbank says they will be ‘more divergent’ in commodity buying and will weaken world corn, sugar and cotton prices; DDG back in after reportedly Iowa dropped from $201/t to $151.00 currently; open interest fell 26,000 led by July off 40,200 (hello 1st notice day) amid decent volume; upside targets to get through: $444.1-2 (10) to $448.3/4 (20). Nothing yet overtly bullish, oversold only it seems.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: What record high South American crop? Old crop weekly export sales rose sharply to 317,200t led by Unknown at 177,600t of it. I am not surprised, the ‘boys’ do not want to let it go. Or another way, the music stopped/get off the dance floor. But a squeeze of sorts it remains to me. Now add to that Monday’s Quarterly stocks number, now almost certainly to bring in bull talk. Hey, acreage as well? November beans might be telling us no significant increase in acreage for the report? Glad I turned near term neutral. In other news: China says will increase reserves by 25mln.m/t’s or “6-month usage” and build another 50mln. capy; Commerzbank sees Canada canola acreage down from previous estimate; our meal and soyoil sales a nothing really; open interest fell 3700 led by July off 15,300 (hello 1st notice day) amid light-side volume. July beans in a 7-day uptrend, knocking out some m/a’s, next one at $14.41-1/2 (20-day); November beans still in a ‘forming’ possible head & shoulders, currently sitting over it 100/50/20-day m/a’s at $12.29-1/2-12.23-1/4. We wait to sell.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales quiet at 359,400t; IGC raised its world production by 5.0mln.m/t’s due to higher acreage in China/India/E.U.; Commerzbank sees Canada acreage lessened; open interest fell 1800 led by July off 8,000 amid moderate volume; near term resistance $5.81-3/4 (10) to $5.95-1/4 (20 day and a good near term likely risk area?).

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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