MORNING GRAINS 6/26/13
Exports: Japan in 120,000t feed wheat & 200,000t feed barley.
Comments: Upon reflection, certainly seems July corn expecting an increase in old crop demand (ethanol, feed?) with the causal decrease in carryover USDA—lowest in 176 years)…carry it further…a decrease in old crop carry-in (old crop) combined with a possible 2 mln. or so less plantings makes new crop carryover a wild card. Not pulling hedges but will protect hedge equity in call options for the report. In other news: France confirms in a recession; some talk of needing to ration old crop ethanol usage?; open interest falls 26,800 led by July off 25,500 amid moderate volume.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Neither an El Nino nor a La Nina be: U.N. says no sign of one all the way to the end of the year; China futures “marginally” higher on CBOT rally; China moves to end ‘money squeeze’ though international nervousness remains; open interest falls 11,100 led by July off 16,800 amid moderate volume; if corn bullish on the USDA report, one might expect a bearish soybean number, hence either side of $12.50 November discounted enough? As in corn, just moving to protect hedge equity ‘just in case’.
Exports: So. Korea buys 120,000t Black Sea.
Comments: Report: as harvest moves northward, so far yield and quality called good; Ukraine harvest in begging stages; open interest fell 4,400 led by July off 8,100 amid moderate volume.
No opinion change.