MORNING GRAINS 6/20/13
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales old crop 133,400t and new crop 77,100t….not much to say except rationing working. Need we ration more? New crop certainly not seeing any crop panic buying, wonder why? StartegieGrain E.U.’s crop lowered 400,000t to 66mln. but also see their carryover rising 1.0mln. on lowered demand; Brazil’s winter crop seeing some rain delaying harvesting; Argentine government revised its crop upward to a record 26.1mln.m/t’s and up 23% on year; open interest little changed in total even as July falls 25,000 (U/Z picked it up) amid heavy volume. Gold collapse/sharply higher U.S. dollar the main negative today? No reason to me to expand weather premiums in December corn beyond $5.70-5.80 at this time.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales old crop 52,600t and new crop 108,500t..like corn, rationing working? Asian stock markets down in part from weak China manufacturing data; China futures lower on that poor PMI and talk bean imports to ‘soar’ the next few months; Argentine farmer strike ended yesterday but today and tomorrow a national holiday there so no business until Monday; China soybean weather improved; Argentine government lowers its ban crop by 400,000t to 50.2mln. and still up 25% on year; open interest rose 3,500 led by November amid moderately good volume. July remains in an injured trading range does it not? And August/November looks toppy and has been getting more volatile. I see no reason to expand a weather premium beyond what we already saw. For now anyway amid longer term forecasts.
Exports: Japan buys 152,321t U.S./Can./Aust; Taiwan buys 85,500t, includes western white if guaranteed GMO-free.
Comments: Weekly export sales 432,700t, about even on the week; I saw no China, large or small, purchase as rumored yesterday so the rally just a typical whipsaw; StrategieGrains lifts E.U. production by 600,000t to 131.5mln. on higher acreage and expected good yields so far; China wheat weather generally OK; Australia’s recent rains improved conditions across ‘most’ of the winter wheat areas; Midwest U.S.SRW weather OK; southern HRW rains too late and delays harvests; northern spring wheat weather said favorable. I see no reason to change bearish opinion.