MORNING GRAINS 6/20/13
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales old crop 133,400t and new crop 77,100tâ€¦.not much to say except rationing working. Need we ration more? New crop certainly not seeing any crop panic buying, wonder why? StartegieGrain E.U.â€™s crop lowered 400,000t to 66mln. but also see their carryover rising 1.0mln. on lowered demand; Brazilâ€™s winter crop seeing some rain delaying harvesting; Argentine government revised its crop upward to a record 26.1mln.m/tâ€™s and up 23% on year; open interest little changed in total even as July falls 25,000 (U/Z picked it up) amid heavy volume. Gold collapse/sharply higher U.S. dollar the main negative today? No reason to me to expand weather premiums in December corn beyond $5.70-5.80 at this time.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales old crop 52,600t and new crop 108,500t..like corn, rationing working? Asian stock markets down in part from weak China manufacturing data; China futures lower on that poor PMI and talk bean imports to â€˜soarâ€™ the next few months; Argentine farmer strike ended yesterday but today and tomorrow a national holiday there so no business until Monday; China soybean weather improved; Argentine government lowers its ban crop by 400,000t to 50.2mln. and still up 25% on year; open interest rose 3,500 led by November amid moderately good volume. July remains in an injured trading range does it not? And August/November looks toppy and has been getting more volatile. I see no reason to expand a weather premium beyond what we already saw. For now anyway amid longer term forecasts.
Exports: Japan buys 152,321t U.S./Can./Aust; Taiwan buys 85,500t, includes western white if guaranteed GMO-free.
Comments: Weekly export sales 432,700t, about even on the week; I saw no China, large or small, purchase as rumored yesterday so the rally just a typical whipsaw; StrategieGrains lifts E.U. production by 600,000t to 131.5mln. on higher acreage and expected good yields so far; China wheat weather generally OK; Australiaâ€™s recent rains improved conditions across â€˜mostâ€™ of the winter wheat areas; Midwest U.S.SRW weather OK; southern HRW rains too late and delays harvests; northern spring wheat weather said favorable. I see no reason to change bearish opinion.