Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 6/19/14
MORNING GRAINS 6/19/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Not good Kemosabe: weekly export sales fell 73% to 109,000t….was there a holiday I was not aware of? Bulls cannot even spin it with new crop sales of only 78,900t. NOAA long term outlook for summer weather expected this morning; ethanol still a bright spot for corn and USDA likely to revise corn use higher, but the market cannot rally much on that alone…we erode $1.00 and not make a difference; open interest fell 6,500 led by July off 20,900 amid moderate volume. I am hoping for a rally but with the sales numbers wheat will have to be the main support.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Cheap U.S. beans raise weekly exports 13% to 97,900t led by Japan and Mexico and shipments up 31% to mainly both of them; new crop sales285,800t; meal sales fell 18% to just 54,700t and soyoil fell 86% to 10,300t’ NOAA weather forecasts today; China’s financial scandal hits copper and Iron ore prices; open interest rose 1500 even as July falls 6400 amid light volume. Looking still for an area to sell August soybeans. For now, watching a consolidation. Game still over on old crop? I think so.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Weekly export sales fell to 372,600t, unknown and others cancel 95,000t; Southern Ill. reports head scab, shampoos not helping; Brazil drops import tariff to 0% vs. 10% for up to 1.0mln.; quality concerns southwest still in play; now the ‘not good’ news as StrategieGrains raises European soft wheat crop 2.0mln. m/t’s due to higher acreage and good conditions; Jordan passes on 100,000t as prices ‘too high” (what do they want, a gift?); open interest little changed in total even as July falls 11,200 (longs willing to roll) amid good volume. I think we can get a better rally out of this correction to sell.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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