Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 6/18/14
MORNING GRAINS 6/18/14

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Well, maybe rains will be a case of too much of a good thing but so far those areas are local; trade talk for a rally is on hope old crop corn will get a pick up in export demand and ethanol demand will move along higher with it; NOAA will release its L/T weather forecast tomorrow I understand; open interest fell 10,800 led by July off 22,500 amid good volume. We’d like a sustainable bounce as well but the current ‘consolidation’ just one of many on the way down. Couple closes over $4.50 would get our attention.

SOYBEANS:
Exports: Sold Unknown 140,000t old crop.
Comments: The sale above and tomorrow’s weekly export sales seen behind the overnight/re-opening rally. And it’s fading already which for now says the game remains over with perhaps, this type of rally in the drawer as typical after a big break; longer term this will be important perhaps: China and the UK to start direct currency trades; open interest fell 2,000 led by July off 15,000 amid good volume. Maybe the bounce in the July also a function of the heavy unraveling of longs. I suspect if selling rallies in August the likely bear defense for now a move/close over $13.80 near term.

Wheat:
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: OK, trade talk has excessive rains stalling harvest and bullish futures after the recent beatings. Or maybe just way oversold. Russia’s harvest said off to a slow start and yields below average (but it’s early); Ukraine harvest kicks off with up yields; Paris futures quiet as Europe harvest set to begin amid favorable production outlooks; open interest rose 1730 even as July falls 14,100 amid strong volume……..tells me someone making a bullish stand (commercials?). If selling rallies, my likely bear defense would be a move/close over $6.08-1/4.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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